A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
